> The kinds of surprises I've been hoping for have not happened - for example, Sanders is scoring well with young African-American voters.
That's totally different. That's effect, not cause. *IF* there's some huge unexpected surprise, *THEN* voting patterns may change. Aside from that, voting patterns will remain consistent. Early primaries revealed what the voting patterns in this contest are, and that's when I drew my conclusions and wrote these posts - it's based on seeing how people are actually voting in this contest. That's a known quantity and we can safely extrapolate from that.
What I'm saying is not "wow suddenly voting patterns could change by surprise." That doesn't happen. What I'm saying is, "voting patterns will not change, unless some big unexpected thing causes them to change." Otherwise, it's the same campaign, and voting will continue along the same pattern.
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momijizukamori
no subject
Date: 2016-03-15 20:53 (UTC)That's totally different. That's effect, not cause. *IF* there's some huge unexpected surprise, *THEN* voting patterns may change. Aside from that, voting patterns will remain consistent. Early primaries revealed what the voting patterns in this contest are, and that's when I drew my conclusions and wrote these posts - it's based on seeing how people are actually voting in this contest. That's a known quantity and we can safely extrapolate from that.
What I'm saying is not "wow suddenly voting patterns could change by surprise." That doesn't happen. What I'm saying is, "voting patterns will not change, unless some big unexpected thing causes them to change." Otherwise, it's the same campaign, and voting will continue along the same pattern.