Republican Presidential Candidates

[cos]

I've been saying it all year, so before the number dwindles too much more, I'll post it: All of the Republican candidates are unelectable in the primary. Not a single one of them has a chance of winning the nomination. And yet, if they're the ones running, one of them will.

This was true back when Herman Cain, Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani, and Sarah Palin, were part of the set. Still true now. None of them can win it, but apparently one of them will anyway.

Comments

[yesthattom.livejournal.com]

Is this bad or good for Obama?

[miss-chance.livejournal.com]

I have this perception, that might not be true, that this is a little bit good for the progressives in the democratic party. My reasoning being that if the Republicans put forth a strong "Centrist" candidate (in quote because what passes for "Center" these days seem very far Right to me), then the Democrats would try to compete for the centrist vote by also swinging even further Right than they already do. Because the Republicans are mostly putting up nut-jobs I think the center-swing voters may be more likely to vote Democrat, which means the White House may hold on to at least one or two left-of-center positions... maybe. And if the White House does that the Left-leaning democrats might not stay away from the polls in disgust. So, ultimately, my guess is good for Obama, and possibly good for actual Democrats, too.

Cos, does that sound about right to you?

[cos]

Neither, really, IMO. I've been expecting Obama to win re-election since before he won his first presidential election, and long before we knew who the candidates were going to be on the Republican side this year (Sarah Palin wasn't even on the national stage yet). The only time my expectation wavered somewhat was earlier this year when the economy seemed poised to maybe get much worse, which if it happened, could give some Republican (almost doesn't matter which Republican) an opening. But even then, I still thought it was pretty likely he'd be re-elected.

The fact that the Republican nominee is going to be someone who couldn't possibly get the Republican nomination (but got it anyway, because nobody else could either) is, I suppose, helpful, but it'd take a really extraordinary Republican candidate to beat Obama IMO. Only Obama, by stumbling in some really giant unexpected ways, can really defeat himself. I don't expect that to happen, though it's not impossible.